Prussian general and military historian Carl von Clausewitz says war is a phenomenon consisting of three central elements, or dominant trends. This trinity is a contradictory relationship consisting of “primitive violence, hatred, and enmity.” He also believes that the more desperate the situation is the greater the possibility of “merging cunning with boldness” is increased, in order to focus a glimmer of hope “that might ignite a fire.”
We may look on recent events under this light. The goal is to impose a change in the current political and military calculas, which was effective in 1973 and 2006 in the Hezbollah war. Regardless of the technological chasm between the two sides, the human and moral dimension of war will always retain its primacy.
The purpose here is to induce a land invasion of Gaza by Israeli armor. Hama probably has signficant anti-tank equipment staged in Gaza and desires to make an example by destroying tanks in the warren of streets.
It has happened throughout history, that a backward society on the edge of civilisation lead by warrior priests surprises the advanced decadent one with a catastrophic defeat, Ibn Khaldun created a theory of history based on it. Small arms are way better, cheaper, and far more prevalent. In the past Palestinians often didn't even have AK's during prior intifadas.
In addition, Hamas is using what is termed "mass strategy." An approach where a numerous, young, and less developed population uses tolerance of both military and civilian casualties as an asymmetric weapon against a more developed population. A strategy every guerrilla army from Michael Collins onward has used. Palestine has a median age of 19.6 years, TRF 3.5+. They can sustain huge losses in a way inconceivable to modern people, who grow more casualty averse as they progress technologically. It is getting harder over time for any central government to suppress people who are growing and willing to fight.
The greater the asymmetry in development between the insurgent and the power, the more likely the insurgent wins.
US hegemony barely (and somewhat unexpectedly) survived the last Middle East forever war. I cannot think of a quicker way to really end it than engaging in round two. It's not winnable. On the absolute basics, I've been optimistic on America's long-term prospects and have written as such. But a major regional Middle East war with American combat involvement is a worst-case scenario. This thing is engineered as a kill shot against the big Elephant. The hardest possible question to answer: How to stay out? It doesn't help that US congress is well populated with members of millenarian cults who think that Israel will somehow bring about the end of days.
Right now, the Israeli political system is deeply dysfunctional and in mental crisis mode. The Hamas operation inflicted more casualties on Israelis than it suffered in previous wars, meaning that Israel's status quo - settler state in conflict with the natives - is looking grim. Israel, in order to exist, needs to be able to militarily overpower or at least deter "the natives".
Hamas destroyed that deterrence, and put a huge question mark over whether the IDF is strong enough to actually overpower Israel's enemies and those neighbours it has “peace” deals with.
This means that the priority now is for Netanyahu to re-establish the feeling of Israeli invincibility, or at least massive superiority. "Destroying" Hamas (whatever this means in practice is very much in doubt) is a national and psychological imperative. With that said, Israel is at a point where it cannot really invade the Gaza strip without suffering potentially catastrophic losses and further illustrating the weaknesses of the IDF. Urban combat in ruins is a nightmare, and IDF reservists do not train for this. Also, the problem here is that Israel's northern front is massively exposed, and the country is slowly being bled dry of expensive interceptor missiles for the "Iron Dome." Once these missiles run out, the country is a sitting duck.
The Israelis wanted a ‘small and clever army’ but ended with a well equipped caricature. The Israelis know it, the Arabs see it. Israel is desperate to reinstate its power of deterrence.
Israel has not won a land war since 1967, and even then, it relied on a preemptive strike. It is quite experienced in military occupation and dropping bombs from the sky on civilians, but fighting face to face or urban combat and guerrilla warfare is something it fears.
Further, Israel is locked in an escalating dynamic with Hezbollah on its northern border. The Shia Resistance Organization is handling the situation in the most careful manner. Its military objectives are to engage substantial IDF forces in the north, eradicate Israeli power of deterrence, threaten Israel with its enormous ballistic power. Hezbollah has achieved all of the above.
Israel called as many as 380.000 reserve soldiers so far. This is the size of the army Russia deploys in Ukraine at the moment. Yet Israel can’t keep the war forever. The country is totally paralysed. Israel isn’t built for long wars. It needs a swift and decisive victory.
But there is one crucial problem. The Arabs know all of that. Hezbollah is not going to lunge in when Israel needs it. Evidently, Israel’s enemies are proving to be slightly more sophisticated than Netanyahu’s government and the IDF leadership. They’ve decided to keep Israel on full deployment in the north, in the West Bank, in Israeli Arab towns and villages. Such a strategy keeps Israeli deploying its forces in 4 potential very challenging theatres and in a state of full alert. Israel doesn’t have enough tanks and ground forces in any of these potential battlefields.
Israel’s enemies have good reasons to believe that such a strategy will break the Israelis spiritually and will crack them politically as the country is already divided.
Israel cannot attack, because to do so is to expose itself on two fronts, excluding uprisings in the West bank and Israel proper. It cannot not attack, because to not attack would be to embrace the reality that America's "Rhodesia" can no longer win against the natives. The only way for Israel to survive is to establish a non-antagonistic dynamic with the rest of the region.
That is the only way to make it work. Even the Saudi-Israeli rapprochement included a demand for a solution to the Palestine question from the Saudis.
As a result, Israeli "strategy" right now is one of strategic and tactical paralysis. The assault into Gaza keeps being extended and postponed, while Israel is trying very hard to prevent food shipments from reaching the Gaza strip. They clearly intend to squeeze the population. However, this won’t work.
Hamas won’t starve: if they can store 5000 rockets in their tunnel network, they can store water and food, way past the point where all the civilians have starved to death. Thus to starve Hamas, you would have to kill millions. It is clear, however, that the plan from the start was to starve Hamas. This is why American diplomatic efforts in the region have been so laser-focused on trying to get Egyptians - or anyone else to take in the entire population of Gaza.
As a matter of geopolitical imperative. If two million Palestinians are displaced into Sinai, it could be fatal to Pres. Sisi. And it won't even stop Hamas. Hamas already has innumerable smuggling tunnels across the Gaza-Egypt border in addition to ties with smugglers in Sinai. If Sinai becomes the new Gaza, Hamas will just start to rebuild on the Egyptian side where they'd also have the advantage of a recruiting pool of millions of angry and jobless Egyptians.
In addition Egypt was already getting bowled over with Biden's India-Middle East-Europe Corridor that bypasses Egypt and devalues the heavy investments they've made in modernising their own infrastructure. In addition, Cairo normalised its relations with Hamas in 2018 and opened up its border with Gaza, soon after Hamas were able to build rockets that could reach Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. The main catalyst for this has been the Israeli-UAE interference and destabilising influence in Sudan, on Egypt’s southern border.
It is thus, no exaggeration when it is said that Egypt would sooner break the Camp David accords or even start covertly supply Hamas with weapons than accept such an outcome!
Jordan too would never allow it. In Jordan the fear is that if population transfer happens in Gaza, then the West Bank is next. Jordan already experienced a 10-month civil war in the 1970s when Palestinian militants stationed themselves there to fight Israel. Egypt and Jordan have had the longest lasting peace treaties with Israel. That even they are being challenged is an indication of how far relations have deteriorated.
You can ask of your allies a great many things, but not slit their own throats!
If Gaza could be emptied of civilians then Hamas could be starved out without murdering a million children. But all of the states surrounding Israel have categorically rejected this. Egypt in particular has said that attempts to ethnically cleanse Gaza will lead to war. In theory, you could resettle these Palestinians in Europe, but the mere suggestion of this would instantly implode any sort of residual support for Israel that exists in Europe. It'd be political and economic suicide.
So, now we have the basic situation: Israel has to attack, but it doesn't think it can win. It also doesn't think it can survive not attacking. Its preferred strategy, starvation, cannot work without triggering a massive genocide, because civilian displacement is a non-starter.
Israel can't come to a decision - it can't go forward, nor can it go back - it will keep standing in place while the civilian death toll spikes. This will in turn force some sort of intervention from its neighbouring countries, starting with Lebanon.
Moreover, the longer this goes on, the more support Israel is bleeding. But this isn't like Operation Cast Lead or Protective Edge, where Israel can simply go back to the status quo. The status quo was maintained by IDF deterrence and IDF superiority, two things which are dead. Pogroms in the West Bank is a fairly likely scenario right now. Random civilian violence against Palestinians, with tacit or open IDF permission. Naturally, this will further Israel's diplomatic isolation, and make neutral actors (Jordan,Turkey, Egypt) likely to intervene.
To sum this up: 1) Israel will keep doing what it's doing: talk about a ground offensive that's perpetually just around the corner, while starving the Gaza strip. 2) This will lead to attacks on Israel - and the US -ramping up. 3) The situation will eventually break. 4) The longer the situation goes on, the more Israel's atrocity count is likely to grow. Starvation is, of course, a war crime. But ethnic cleansing or violent pogroms against Palestinians outside Gaza is fairly likely in this situation for psychological reasons. 5) Any attempt for Israel to simply turn back the clock to September 2023 is fantasy. Israelis won't accept that: they know the Palestinians are capable of inflicting massive harm on them now. But neither will the wider region accept the Israeli status quo any longer.
The most likely outcome is a face saving ground manoeuvre, short of a full scale invasion, declare victory and pulling out. The result of this round of fighting is Israel isn't safer, relations with long-term partners (Egypt and Jordan) damaged, impossible for Saudi to normalise without the two-state solution implemented. The reputational damage to US standing in the region is irreversible on top of the fact that Hamas can claim victory because it wasn't destroyed. Worse still, Hamas has established itself as a political reality that cannot be ignored in any future resolution and settlement.
In two generations or far less, given the networked tribal dynamics underway, the US won't just be unsupportive of Israel; it will be hostile to it:
73% of American Jews would choose a democratic Israel that’s no longer Jewish, over a Jewish Israel without full citizenship & equality for non-Jews living under its authority.1
Long term, Israel is likely heading towards a Rhodesia-style exodus after this war is over. White rule ended in South Africa in 1994. But, the writing was on the wall with regards to international opinion already after the 1960 Sharpesville massacre. Likewise Israel may last another 35 years, but Gaza 2023 is its Sharpesville in turning international opinion. Nobody expects the Palestinians to conquer Israel. They expect Israel's Zionist regime to cease to be a viable entity, and regime change.